5 Burning Questions Facing The AFC South
Will Young Quarterbacks Turn Most 'Fun' Division in Football to Most Competitive overnight?
Is there a more fun division than the AFC South?
Three of four starting quarterbacks entering their second season, three of the top-15 receiving leaders from a year ago, and four franchises who have aggressively gotten to work building around their young and promising passers.
As the 2024 season looms, here’s a breakdown of five burning questions facing the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans.
Can the Houston Texans Overcome the Weight of Expectations?
The Houston Texans have arrived.
C.J. Stroud surpassed every reasonable expectation for a rookie quarterback, playing his way into the MVP conversation and leading the Texans into the divisional round of the AFC Playoffs.
Then, general manager Nick Caserio went all in this offseason.
Grabbing Stefon Diggs in a blockbuster trade with the Buffalo Bills not only grabs headlines but rounds out what may be the most dynamic receiving trio in the league for Stroud.
Likewise, Danielle Hunter is an elite and ascending pass-rusher to pair opposite game-wrecker Will Anderson Jr., while Denico Autry adds veteran depth off the edge, and Neville Hewitt bolsters the front seven.
In many ways, Houston used free agency this offseason to fortify a defense capable of playing complementary football to what has the potential to be one of the sport’s most prolific offenses.
In short, Caserio understood the assignment.
The Texans are well aware that they have a window to legitimately compete for Super Bowls over the next three seasons, with Stroud on a rookie contract.
Adding weapons to win shootouts against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is critical. However, having a defense capable of wreaking havoc against the game’s top quarterbacks may prove to be paramount.
However, it’s one thing to spring to a 10-7 finish as the plucky upstart; it’s another to take the next step when the expectation is for this team to finish as one of the premier teams in the conference if not the NFL.
Stroud making strides in his second season will be aided by the arrivals of Diggs and running back Joe Mixon. Whether the Texans thrive in the role of the hunted or crumble under the pressure of facing their opponents’ best shot each week will be a compelling storyline to watch this season.
Will Shane Steichen Have a Similar Impact on Anthony Richardson as He Did Jalen Hurts?
Just two years ago, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was very much in the MVP conversation, having the most prolific season of his career to date, with Shane Steichen calling the offense.
Steichen rode the wave of the Eagles’ offensive success and Hurts’ 3,700-yard 2022 campaign with 22 touchdowns to six interceptions all the way to Indianapolis as the Colts’ next head coach. That spring, Indy landed Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 overall pick, hoping history would repeat itself over the next decade with Steichen and his new young quarterback to mold and mentor.
Richardson seemed poised to deliver on that promise, passing for 577 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while adding four rushing scores, despite suffering a concussion that sidelined him for 1.5 games and an AC joint injury in his throwing shoulder that ended his season in Week 5.
In many ways, Richardson remains a blank canvas, having played in just 20 games at the University of Florida and with just four NFL contests under his belt.
However, the 6-foot-4 and 244-pound quarterback boasts off-the-charts athleticism to make things happen when the pocket starts collapsing around him.
The Colts came one game shy of winning the division last season, with Gardner Minshew competently serving as a game manager.
If Steichen can harness Richardson’s athleticism and help mold him into a more proficient pocket passer to maximize the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Adonai Mitchell in a potentially explosive receiving corps, the foundation could be set for the Colts to be one of the more difficult outs in the league well into the future.
Will the Real Trevor Lawrence Please Stand Up?
The Jacksonville Jaguars made Trevor Lawrence the highest-paid quarterback in the league, not named Patrick Mahomes, this offseason.
While I’m of the belief that by the end of Lawrence’s five-year contract, the $275 million total value will look like a bargain due to quarterback salaries continuing to balloon, the cap projected to keep rising, and new deals coming down the pike for the likes of Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and eventually C.J. Stroud, Richardson, and yes, five years from now Caleb Williams, Lawrence will need to do his part to prove his worth.
Lawrence’s first three seasons have been Jekyll and Hyde personified.
No one can reasonably hold the former No. 1 overall pick’s rookie season against him, given the colossal dysfunction of Urban Meyer’s disastrous 13-game epoch as head coach.
But in 2022, Lawrence looked the part of the generational talent many believed him to be coming out of Clemson, passing for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns to eight interceptions while leading three comeback victories before leading the Jaguars all the way back in a historic postseason victory over the Chargers.
Then, last season, Lawrence dramatically regressed in 2023, with his passing yards and touchdowns dipping while his interceptions nearly doubled to 14.
Working alongside a quarterback-friendly head coach like Doug Pederson is bound to help Lawrence in his second season in the Super Bowl-winning head coach’s scheme. However, the Jaguars haven’t exactly built out the infrastructure in his supporting cast to help him grow by leaps and bounds.
I’m not convinced a receiving corps led by Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and promising incoming rookie Brian Thomas Jr. will strike much fear into the defenses the Jaguars need to overtake to climb back into the playoff conversation or do much to help Lawrence.
Franchise quarterbacks make the players around them better. This season, the Jaguars’ trajectory may depend on Lawrence doing exactly that, and then some.
Will New Weapons Power a Will Levis Surge, Playoff Charge?
Tennessee Titans general manager Ran Carthon deserves a lot of credit.
While the jury hasn’t even begun deliberations yet on whether Will Levis is a franchise quarterback capable of leading the Titans to playoff glory, Carthon has gotten down to work building out an arsenal that will prove a verdict on Levis this season.
Either Levis will be able to take an offense powered by electrifying receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Treylon Burks while sharing a backfield with Tony Pollard on a charge to the postseason, or Carthon has built a soft landing for a rookie quarterback next season that will put Caleb Williams’ supporting cast in Chicago to shame.
Levis was wildly inconsistent as a rookie, completing 58.4% of his 255 passing attempts for 1,808 yards with eight touchdowns to four interceptions as the Titans won just three of his nine starts.
This season, Levis not only has a cavalry of weapons most quarterbacks would walk over hot coals to throw to but will also benefit from head coach Brian Callahan shepherding his development, coming off a run of success working alongside Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow as the coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals’ explosive offense.
In many ways, the 2024 campaign is Levis’ audition, and Tennessee may prove to be the ultimate boom-or-bust situation in the NFL this season.
Which Young Quarterback Makes the Biggest Leap Towards the MVP Race?
There’s a reason so much of the uncertainty in the AFC South centers on the quarterback situations of three of the teams within it. These young signal-callers are also the source of so much optimism in all four buildings.
Depending on how this season plays out for Lawrence, Richardson, and Levis, one of them — or more — might join Stroud in the MVP conversation by season’s end.
Who knows if the AFC South is going to be as competitive as divisions such as the AFC North, East, NFC North, NFC West, or NFC East, but it has the potential to be the most fun in the league.
If any of the young quarterbacks in this division make major strides, all four teams are built to play spoiler against the conference’s heavyweights and just might take their place among them given the rosters — that have staying power — that all four front offices have assembled around them.