5 Burning Questions Facing the NFC South
The most wide-open division in the NFL is loaded with what-ifs!
There might not be a more wide-open division than the NFC South, and that is due in large part because there might not be another division that houses four franchises in various states of a rebuild.
Tampa Bay once again looks like the runaway favorite, but replacing key vocal leaders on defense and building on a career-best season from the quarterback could prove daunting.
In Carolina, Bryce Young may already be in the clock, while the Falcons created what has the potential to be one of the more acrimonious quarterback rooms in the league after drafting Michael Penix Jr. in the first round mere months after making Kirk Cousins one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the sport.
Then, there’s the New Orleans Saints who spent much of the past two seasons wandering the desert in search of an identity.
Here’s a look at five burning questions facing the NFC South:
Will the real Baker Mayfield please Stand Up?
The biggest question facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024, and for the next three seasons, is whether Baker Mayfield’s electrifying 2023 campaign was an outlier or the result of finally having elite weapons and quality coaching around him.
After all, prior to landing in Tampa last offseason, and the quarterback-friendly confines of Dave Canales’ system with elite receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin around him, Mayfield averaged 3,257 yards with 17 touchdowns to just under 11 interceptions per season.
In his first season leading the charge for the Buccaneers, Mayfield completed a career-best 64.3 percent of his passes for 4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
Now that Canales is the head coach of the Carolina Panthers, will Mayfield build on his prolific 2023 campaign with a full complement of weapons still around him, or will last season prove to be lightning in a bottle?
Tampa Bay’s postseason aspirations likely hinge on the answer being the former.
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How Patient are the Panthers prepared to be with Bryce Young?
Speaking of Canales, the Panthers are betting big that the 43-year-old will resurrect Bryce Young’s career, after a disastrous rookie season from the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft.
Young was ambushed early, often, and repeatedly, thanks to a porous Panthers’ offensive line, withstanding 62 sacks and 50 hits while facing pressure on 24.2 percent of his snaps.
Meanwhile, Young’s intended air yards per attempt, at 7.6 is the lowest among eligible quarterbacks since 2011.
Beyond not producing, Young looked lost, like a deer in a freeway’s worth of headlights, which raised serious concerns about his viability as a franchise quarterback.
While Young is in no danger of being benched at any point during the upcoming 2024 campaign, what happens if this season with Canales doesn’t yield marked improvement over a 2,877-yard and 11-touchdown season that saw the Panthers win two games?
If the Panthers are picking in the top-three, largely because Young hasn’t taken major steps in his development, might Canales and Carolina look to draft his successor next spring?
As counterintuitive as it might sound, the upcoming season may be a legitimate audition for Young’s career in Carolina.
Can Zac Robinson turn Bijan Robinson into at least Kyren Williams?
I’ll just come right out and say it … Arthur Smith had subzero idea of how to utilize rookie running back Bijan Robinson.
The explosive, agile, versatile running back posted 974 yards and four rushing touchdowns while catching 58 passes for 487 yards and four more scores, which, on the surface looks like a solid rookie campaign.
However, Robinson only logged 20+ touches three times last season and managed more than 100 rushing yards just twice.
Then, there was that bizarre game where Robinson was sidelined against the Buccaneers for a headache — as a frequent migraine sufferer, I relate and empathize with the situation, but Smith wasn’t the most forthcoming about those circumstances, either.
Meanwhile, incoming Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson spent the past three seasons working with Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams’ quarterbacks. Last season, Rams running back Kyren Williams caught 32 passes, which could be an indicator of how Atlanta will deploy Robinson.
Given that Williams finished the 2023 season with 1,142 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, Robinson's production in 2024 might have a similar floor. If that's the case, it should create opportunities in the passing game for players like Drake London and Kyle Pitts, especially with competent quarterback play from Kirk Cousins. Defenses will need to respect the run, and that should allow the offense to capitalize. At least, that's how the offense should look in 2024, with Robinson as a focal point.
Will the Saints’ offensive line gel quickly enough?
The Saints struggled to find much of an identity, and even moreso to find any real consistency on offense last season, in large part because of shoddy offensive line play.
New Orleans surrendered 35 sacks, and Alvin Kamara and company ran for just 1,742 yards.
It’s no wonder that New Orleans underwent an offensive line overhaul this offseason.
The Saints chose Tailese Fuaga in the first round, out of Oregon State, and could push for the starting left tackle job. Trevor Penning looks to bounce back at right tackle, and Nick Saldiveri could wind up winning the starting left guard job out of training camp.
But, this is an offensive line that ranked 23rd, according to Pro Football Focus, last season which could be breaking in as many as four new starters when Week 1 rolls around.
It takes time for offensive lines, especially those featuring a rookie left tackle, to develop the requisite chemistry and cohesion necessary to compete. Will this group be up to the task at least well enough to buttress what could be a top-15 defense to the point of making an insurgent run at a crown in arguably the most wide-open division in football? Time will tell.
Is there a top-15 offense to be found in this division?
Last season, the Kansas City Chiefs largely proved the age-old adage that defenses win championships. While Patrick Mahomes rose to the occasion in overtime in the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City rode a dominant pass rush and continually improving secondary to a second straight Lombardi, overcoming a receiving corps that led the league in dropped passes.
Yet, the Chiefs still finished ninth in total offense, proving once again that to win in the modern NFL, lighting up the scoreboard and chewing up yards is critical.
To that point, each of the past ten Super Bowl champions fielded a top-10 offense.
Last season, the Saints were the highest-ranked offense in the division, finishing just 14th in the NFL in total offense while averaging 337.2 yards and 23.6 points per game despite wildly inconsistent quarterback play.
Given the legitimate questions facing the Saints’ offensive line, the Falcons’ identity, Mayfield’s consistency, and … whatever Carolina develops into, it’s fair to wonder whether there is an offense competent and complete enough to rank in the upper half of the league to be found in the NFC South this season. That in and of itself seems to lower the ceiling on each of these teams’ chances of making a lengthy postseason run.
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