Biggest Winners and Losers of the NFL's First Four Weeks
Going deep on the standouts and disappointments of the first month of the 2024 NFL season
The first month of the NFL season can be cruel.
Flimsy pseudo-contenders can rise up sparking misplaced optimism and excitement while teams that were expected to make a push for the Super Bowl can stumble out of the chute never to be heard from again.
This September has been no different as presumed NFC favorites such as the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers mired in various states of mediocrity while starting identity crises in the mirror or hoping for superstars to return to save the day. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are walking a tightrope, the Ravens kicked the doors down against the Bills after stumbling around for the first two weeks of the season only to enter October with some believing they are the best team in all the land.
With four games in the books for all 32 teams, here’s a look at the biggest winners and losers at what was previously the quarter-pole of a 16-game slate.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings QB - Winner
Is there a more pleasantly surprising or impressive storyline through the NFL’s first month than Sam Darnold resurrecting his career before our eyes and transforming the Vikings from a franchise rebuilding on the fly on a team now with legitimate NFC North title hopes?
Darnold leads the league with 11 touchdown passes, is ninth in passing yards, with 932, and most notably for the formerly turnover-prone No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, has only tossed three interceptions.
Former Vikings quarterback Sage Rosenfels tells me the biggest drivers of Darnold’s early-season success are the combination of coaching and age.
“He now has had two of the best offensive coaches in the league back-to-back,” Rosenfels tells me. “And, Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O’Connell run similar offenses. Age helps as playerss get a bit older and he gets a better understanding of the game as he gets older which can help him anticipate things quicker and better.”
Having a wide receiver duo as explosive as Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at Darnold’s disposal can’t hurt, either.
The way Darnold is winning, and having guided Minnesota to victories over the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, and division rival Green Bay Packers feels like the Vikings’ success is sustainable. Minnesota’s two meetings against the Lions may define their season.
Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars Head Coach - Loser
The Jacksonville Jaguars have become a rudderless ship, and worse, the players seem unmotivated and a bit lost amid a dreadful 0-4 start.
There has never been a team that opened the season with five consecutive losses rebound to make the playoffs, and it’s almost unconscionable that the Jaguars, led by QB Trevor Lawrence, running back Travis Etienne, receivers Gabe Davis, Christian Kirk, and a talented defense can be this … uncompetitive.
Pederson seems to be feeling the pressure, already, and went so far as to throw his players under the bus following Sunday’s 24-20 loss to the division rival Houston Texans.
“As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays,” Pederson told reporters. “Right? It’s a two-way street.”
Yikes.
If there’s one way to win over the trust of your players, and to motivate them to turn things around, it’s to blame them for the failures.
Football teams are a reflection of their head coach, and right now Pederson seems to lack answers or resolve. If the Colts get knocked off by the Indianapolis Fighting Joe Flaccos at home on Sunday afternoon, I’m not sure Pederson is the coach by Monday night.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions RB - Winner
The Detroit Lions continue to be a relentless, violent wrecking ball of a football team, as they proved once again during Monday night’s 42-29 lambasting of the previously unbeaten Seattle Seahawks.
Head coach Dan Campbell’s Marauders on Lake Michigan have operated most dominantly when the offense functions as a two-headed monster featuring Gibbs and David Montgomery.
However, even after Montgomery’s punishing closing stretch to put away the Los Angeles Rams in overtime Week 1, Gibbs has steadily increased his workload and proven he’s plenty capable of being the explosive, versatile, three-down weapon general manager Brad Holmes chose with the No. 12 overall pick last spring.
As Pro Football Focus points out, Gibbs has already bulldozed his way to six explosive runs of 10 yards or more, while averaging a healthy 3.4 yards after contact per attempt.
Gibbs reached the end zone twice against the Seahawks and his 285 rushing yards leads the Lions. Expect the second-year standout to become an even more potent and consistent piece of Detroit’s versatile and punishing offense.
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Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins WR - Loser
This season has become a nightmare for Tyreek Hill, through little fault of his own.
As if police using overly-excessive force and threatening to arrest him for a moving violation in the shadow of Hard Rock Stadium weren’t an inauspicious start to the 2024 season in its own right, the Dolphins’ quarterback situation has devolved into easily the worst in the league.
When Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, Hill caught 10 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown through the season’s first two weeks. However, since Tagovailoa has been sidelined while dealing with his third documented concussion, Hill has been marginalized, held to just 10 receptions for 97 yards over the past three weeks.
The offensive mastermind formerly known as Mike McDaniel, is going to need to find ways to scheme the ball into Hill’s hands, be it on jet-sweeps or flanker screens, or move him around to create mismatches given the uninspiring play from Skylar Thompson (now injured), Tyler Huntley, and Tim Boyle that the Dolphins have gotten in recent weeks.
Hill may be the most vital non-quarterback on the roster to the Dolphins’ success, but he can’t throw himself the ball but maybe it’s worth trying to do given the signal callers currently in Miami.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB - Winner
It’s safe to say that Baker Mayfield has found a home, and resurrected his career in Tampa Bay.
Mayfield has shrugged off any suggestion that his success in 2023 was a byproduct of playing in Dave Canales system, and has elevated his game to heights previously unseen while executing offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s scheme to near perfection.
In Week 2, Mayfield’s gritty performance both from the pocket and with two critical fourth-quarter scrambles lifted the Buccaneers past the Lions in a statement victory, but his ability to maximize the dynamic receiving corps Tampa has built around him has sustained the Buccaneers’ early-season success.
Mayfield has started the season on a torrid pace, completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 984 yards with eight touchdowns to just two interceptions en route to a 106.9 passer rating and 3-1 start for the Buccaneers.
Meanwhile, Chris Godwin is on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards, Mike Evans is giving that pace a real scare, as 10 different Buccaneers have already caught a pass from Mayfield showcasing the depth and balance of the Buccaneers’ weapons and Mayfield’s ability to spread the ball around.
It took a minute, but Mayfield is playing like the Cleveland Browns believed he could and would when they chose him No. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Jerry Jones, Dallas Cowboys Owner - Loser
After Jerry Jones vowed the Dallas Cowboys were ‘all-in’ on the 2024 season, and free agency, America’s Team legitimately risks missing out on the playoffs entirely.
Yes, the Cowboys clipped the New York Giants last Thursday night to improve to .500, but Dallas just looks like a team lacking an identity and, quite frankly, lacking talent at some key positions.
For example, much has been made of Jones claiming the Cowboys “couldn’t afford” to sign Derrick Henry, and the now Baltimore Ravens star (more on him below) has already rushed for 480 yards and five touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ running backs committee of Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle have combined for just 218. Dallas has the fewest explosive runs of 10 yards or more in the NFL, which is putting tremendous pressure on quarterback Dak Prescott and a receiving corps still in search of a steadily reliable second-option behind CeeDee Lamb.
Adding injury to insult, Micah Parsons may miss significant time and DeMarcus Lawrence is injured as well, which makes the Cowboys’ defense even more vulnerable and less disruptive rushing the passer.
Sure, Jones took care of Lamb and Prescott before the season began, but this is looking like a top-heavy roster both lacking the depth to meaningfully compete and that doesn’t even seem close to talented enough at the top, either.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens RB - Winner
The moment Henry put pen to paper with the Baltimore Ravens, this felt like arguably the best free agent fit across the NFL, perhaps even in decades.
While it’s still early, Henry is living up to those expectations.
Forget for a second, if you will, that Henry has more rushing yards than 15 teams and that his 10 explosive runs of 10 yards or more may be the missing element to getting the Ravens over the top and by extension potentially winning his first Super Bowl ring, but schematically Henry and Baltimore are a match made in heaven.
After all, Lamar Jackson’s 70 percent completion percentage on play-action throws is among the highest in the NFL, and there are few running backs defenses must respect more in the play-action game than Henry.
Baltimore demolished and demoralized the previously high-flying Bills on Sunday night, thanks in large part to Henry’s 199-yard coming out party. Expect much more where that came from for Henry and the Ravens.
Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach - Loser
Nick Sirianni badly needed a fast start to turn the page and change the narratives while boosting morale around One NovaCare way following last season’s epic backslide from a 10-2 start to a road loss in the NFC Wild Card.
That. Hasn’t. Happened.
Yes, the Eagles were a dropped Saquon Barkley pass against the Atlanta Falcons away from a 3-0 start, and Philly can certainly hang its hat on shutting down the previously white-hot New Orleans Saints, and while it’s also true it’s difficult to play at a high level missing key contributors like Lane Johnson, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith, it sure seems like many of the same triggers of last season’s collapse or returning home to roost.
Jalen Hurts has regressed dramatically, with seven turnovers through four games while committing 27 dating back to last season. High-priced pass rusher Bryce Huff seems miserable, and you have as many sacks as him this season as you read this. Then there’s Darius Slay taking to social media asking that fans criticizing his poor play against the Buccaneers also take heed and remember his production throughout his career.
If Kellen Moore is calling the offense, and Vic Fangio overseeing the defense, and Sirianni is in charge of the vibes while they torpedo to new lows, what exactly is the argument keeping Sirianni here?
The window to fire Sirianni before the Eagles’ Week 5 bye seems to have closed, but Philadelphia may need to go on a run over the next month to stave off a coaching change.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders QB - Winner
The Washington Commanders have arrived as a legitimate NFC East contender, and Daniels looks like far and away the most polished and pro ready of this year’s rookie quarterback class.
Daniels has been spectacular, showcasing decision-making from the pocket that would come to be expected from a seasoned veteran, while flashing downfield accuracy and ideal ball-placement to present big play opportunities for Washington’s pass catchers downfield.
Prior to the season, I thought Washington would be a plucky but tough out for legitimate contenders, with the talent on the roster in place for a Dan Quinn coached team to maybe sneak into the playoffs. Daniels’ first month signals it is time to start talking about Washington in the scope of a potential division champion.
Completing off the charts 82.1 completion percentage obviously isn’t sustainable, but the reigning Hesiman Trophy winner has passed for 897 yards with three touchdowns to just one interception, thus far.
Start firing up the Commanders hype train, with Daniels driving the locomotive.
Breece Hall, New York Jets RB - Loser
Maybe it’s not entirely fair to include Hall on this list, but, the explosive dynamo of a back has seen his backfield share diminished by the violent downhill rookie out of Wisconson, Braelon Allen.
Even when the Jets turned to Hall in multiple short-yardage situations in Sunday’s snoozefest against the Denver Broncos, Hall was stonewalled. He also committed a penalty and gave up a sack on a blown blocking assignment. Suboptimal.
The Jets insist they’re as optimistic as ever about Hall, but his 174 rushing yards and two scores through four weeks aren’t just uninspiring but they’re a stark drop off from what he’s shown as his potential upside in the recent past.
