Each Team's Biggest Key to Advancing to The Super Bowl
How the Conference Championship Games Will be Won
Then there were four.
Four teams remain in the quest for the Lombardi Trophy, as the Kansas City Chiefs are just two wins shy of their bid for a historic third consecutive Super Bowl championship, as is Jayden Daniels from becoming the first rookie quarterback to ever win a title.
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The Commanders and Eagles, Bills and Chiefs are set to square off on championship Sunday, and here’s one key for each team winning and advancing to New Orleans:
Buffalo Bills: Sustain Drives, Limit Patrick Mahomes’ Opportunities
It turns out, your eyes aren’t deceiving you; Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense have a next gear in the postseason that few teams have the ability to match.
As good friend, road dog, and FTN Senior Fantasy Analyst Aaron Schatz points out, the Chiefs’ postseason DVOA has been 7.9 points higher than in the regular season over the past seven years.
A big key to the Chiefs’ postseason success is extending drives, and Mahomes’ chances at some sort of heroics—be it late in games or big plays that turn into quick-strike scores.
This season, the Chiefs converted 47.9 percent of their third down opportunities, the third highest in the NFL during the regular season. Moreover, Mahomes is a 65 percent passer on third down for 1,076 yards with 11 of his 26 touchdowns coming on third down this season.
Buffalo’s third-down defense enters Sunday ranked 28th in the league, allowing opponents to move the chain 44 percent of the time. But, this is the same unit that held Mahomes and the Chiefs to just 5-of-10 on third down in their 30-21 win in Orchard Park earlier this season.
Sunday might come down to quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense dominating the time of possession game and converting long drives into scores.
Against the Ravens in the divisional round, the Bills had three 10-plus play drives, converting them into one touchdown and two field goals.
If the Bills can replicate—or even build on that performance, and prevent the Chiefs from sustaining drives, they’ll have a chance to pull off the upset and advance one win closer to winning the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy.
Kansas City Chiefs: Sell Out to Stop The Run
It might sound counter-intuitive against Josh Allen, but the Chiefs’ best path to a third consecutive Super Bowl trip might be putting the ball in his hands and making him with the game in the vertical passing game.
Buffalo arrives in Arrowhead Sunday with one of the NFL’s most balanced offenses, fueled by the league’s ninth-rated rushing attack, averaging 131.2 rushing yards per game and scoring a league-high 32 touchdowns.
Sunday night in the Bills’ win over the Ravens, Buffalo was held to 147 rushing yards and the game came down to Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews dropping a two-point conversion attempt that would have sent the game to overtime.
James Cook is as explosive a runner as they come, and the Bills’ offense has transformed this season into a run-first scheme that allows Allen to exploit defenses over the top.
Kansas City’s secondary is built to contain the likes of Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Amari Cooper. Meanwhile, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense held opponents to just 101.8 rushing yards per game, eighth stingiest in the. NFL during the regular season.
If the Chiefs can relentlessly pressure Allen, while also managing to take away Buffalo’s resurgent running game, Kansas City is going to be well on its way to holding serve and advancing to the Super Bowl.
Washington Commanders: Make Zach Ertz the Focal Point
There would be something poetic about Zach Ertz winning the right to play for his second Super Bowl ring, in Philadelphia, where he was drafted and won his first ring. He might also be the most important player not named Jayden Daniels on the field for the Commanders.
Ertz has experienced a latter-career renaissance this season in Washington, becoming Daniels’ security blanket and one of Washington’s most potent red-zone weapons.
Despite playing out this season at age 34, Ertz has caught 91 passes for 654 yards, and finishing one touchdown shy of tying his career-high of eight.
During the Commanders’ Divisional round victory over the Lions, Ertz caught all five of his targets for 28 yards and a touchdown. Further, the Commanders are 5-2 this season when Ertz finds the end zone.
There’s a reason Daniels has an exceptional 113.9 passer rating when targeting Ertz, and Pro Football Focus points out that his eight-yard depth of target ranks ninth among NFL tight ends; Ertz remains a difference-maker and thrives in the space created by Dyami Brown and Terry McLauring over the top on the perimeter.
Philadelphia’s defense has been stellar against tight ends this season, allowing only five touchdowns and a league-low 591 yards to the position.
But, given Ertz’s six-catch, 47-yard performance with one touchdown in the first meeting between these teams—as well as his recent impact on Washington’s success down the stretch and in these playoffs—don’t be surprised if offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury makes a concerted effort to funnel the passing game through the veteran tight end on Sunday.
PODCAST
On this week’s Between The Hashmarks Podcast,
, of, and I preview the conference championship games, including the most important players in each contest, how the Eagles can make up for Jalen Hurts potentially not being fully healthy, and give our analysis of what’s happening as the coaching carousel spins.Philadelphia Eagles: Get Saquon Barkley Involved in The Passing Game
Saquon Barkley had nearly identical performances in the Eagles’ two meetings against the Commanders this season.
In Philadelphia’s 26-18 Week 10 victory over the Commanders, it isn’t a stretch to say that Barkley was the catalyst for the Eagles’ victory. That night at Lincoln Financial Field, Barkley rushed for 150 yards with a pair of touchdowns, with 99 of those yards and both touchdowns coming after halftime. Barkley also caught three passes for 56 yards to help propel Philly to a win.
Meanwhile, in the rematch between the NFC East rivals, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns, but did not catch his lone target in a stunning 36-33 Eagles loss.
It’s no secret that Barkley is at his best, and most dangerous, in space.
Sunday afternoon, Barkley bailed the Eagles out of a 3rd and forever situation from the 5-yard line when he took a Hurts swing pass 15 yards to move the chains. In addition to rushing for a career-high 2,005 yards this season, Barkley also caught 33 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns, while tying a career-best 44 percent catch success rate (the number of times a passing play generates at least 40% of the yards needed for a first down) and catching 77 percent of his targets.
In a game where Hurts might not be fully healthy—just one week after Jared Goff and the Lions learned the pitfalls of testing this Commanders secondary too often in the deep passing game, leading to four Detroit interceptions—the Eagles may want to consider utilizing Barkley even more as a receiver out of the backfield. Screens, swing passes, and wheel routes could get the ball in his hands in open space, drawing the secondary closer to the line of scrimmage and creating bigger play opportunities vertically for Hurts.
Great attempt at boiling it all down to key points. We'll see. Too often -- almost always -- games are decided by anomalies that we never hit on. ... That's why we play the games, right?