NFL Players, Coaches, and Execs Share Surprising MVP Picks in Exclusive Survey | 4 Downs
Those inside the NFL make their predictions on how the 2024 season will play out
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The NFL regular season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens to raise the curtain on the 2024 campaign is mere weeks away, making it the perfect time to take the temperature of those inside the league on what to expect.
As part of my annual preseason survey of current players, coaches, scouts, front-office executives, and agents with clients in buildings across the NFL, I asked those with the most at stake how they see several key elements of the upcoming season playing out.
Who is the under-the-radar MVP candidate who isn’t getting nearly enough attention as Week 1 looms?
“So much of Jared Goff’s turnaround is rooted in finally playing for coaches who believe in him,” one NFC South Personnel Executive told me, heaping praise on the quarterback at the heat of the Detroit Lions’ resurgence the past several seasons.
Goff’s Lions, unsurprisingly after making a run to the NFC Championship Game last fall, also got plenty of love among those polled on their selection for this year’s Super Bowl matchup in New Orleans.
Meanwhile, as the Kansas City Chiefs, Lions, San Francisco 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles dominate the Super Bowl conversation, which teams have the potential to come out of nowhere and surprise some people and perhaps ruin the days of legitimate contenders down the stretch?
“Indy has a lot of the ingredients you like,” a veteran AFC Scout tells me. “The running game, solid head coach, and if the quarterback progresses they are going to be a headache.”
Over in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons’ offseason spending spree and the return of Raheem Morris to the head coaching ranks are turning heads.
“I think the Falcons are a sleeper team that will surprise people this year,” an AFC linebacker told me. “They have been gearing up at some important positions, and I’m interested to see how it all comes together.
Shane Steichen’s Colts, led by Anthony Richardson, and Kirk Cousins’ arrival with the Falcons were two of nine teams receiving votes, but neither the leader in the clubhouse.
That mantle belongs to a veteran head coach and a rookie quarterback …
“I like Denver,” an NFC Personnel Director proclaimed. “It’s a better roster than people think, and the coach is going to make Bo Nix successful.”
First Down: Under The Radar MVP Candidate
“I’m firmly in the camp that Tyreek Hill should get consideration. Especially if he puts up the kind of numbers he did last season. Without him, that Dolphins offense isn’t nearly the same and Tua is a way less effective QB.” - AFC Offensive Coach
Aaron Rodgers (1)
Jared Goff (1)
Kirk Cousins (1)
C.J. Stroud (1)
Justin Herbert (1)
Kyler Murray (1)
Saquon Barkley (1)
Tyreek Hill (1)
Mike Evans (1)
Josh Allen (1)
It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that quarterbacks dominated the MVP conversation among those polled.
After all, quarterbacks have won the award for 11 consecutive seasons dating back to Adrian Peterson as the last running back to win the crown in 2012 as the only non-signal caller to be named MVP since the 2006 season.
Rodgers, Goff, and Cousins would all qualify as surprises. Likewise, if Saquon Barkley, Tyreek Hill, or Mike Evans win the award it would be a telling indication of just how successful the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ seasons had been.
Second Down: The NFL team that surprises and exceeds expectations in 2023
“Look out for the Jets. They have the top cornerback duo in the league, linebackers that can run, and their offense is powered by a good running game and two excellent wide receivers. Also, Aaron Rodgers …” - NFL Coordinator
1. Denver Broncos (3)
Houston Texans (3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (1)
Atlanta Falcons (1)
Los Angeles Chargers (1)
Indianapolis Colts (1)
New York Jets (1)
Tennessee Titans (1)
Seattle Seahawks (1)
There is always at least one.
Every season there is a team that seemingly comes from nowhere to either ruin a contender’s chance at a title or that races off on a playoff run of their own.
Last season’s upstarts, the Houston Texans, would seemingly have graduated from the realm of “surprise” team in 2024, but commanded major respect, especially among current players.
“The Texans are going to be a very complete team this year,” one NFC running back told me, listing Houston and Detroit as his two teams to advance to Super Sunday.
However, one franchise that is flying a bit under the radar, despite one of the more fascinating quarterback battles playing out throughout the summer, is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Regardless of who is throwing passes to George Pickens, one current rival AFC executive believes the Steelers are a team to watch.
“The Steelers are my sleeper team,” the AFC Scouting Director tells me. “Changing quarterbacks is critical, and I always bet on established coaches.”
Third Down: Super Bowl Prediction
“I’m not betting against Patrick Mahomes,” - NFC Front Office Member
Detroit Lions over Kansas City Chiefs (2)
Kansas City Chiefs over Detroit Lions (2)
Baltimore Ravens over San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions over Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs over Philadelphia Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs over San Francisco 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles over Houston Texans
Los Angeles Rams over New York Jets
The Kansas City Chiefs are in search of what would be a historic three-peat, so it isn’t surprising that the overwhelming majority of respondents inside the league believe Patrick Mahomes and Co. at least advance to Super Sunday.
“Give me the rematch between the two best teams,” a current NFL Coordinator told me.
However, the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles all boast deep and talented rosters capable of making a legitimate charge at the Lombardi Trophy this season.
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Fourth Down: A Word on the Philadelphia Eagles’ Latest Blockbuster Trade
The Philadelphia Eagles took another small step towards a second trip to the Super Bowl in three seasons last week, while potentially rounding out one of the most electrifying collections of skill players in the league around quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Former first-round pick out of Penn State, Jahan Dotson, had fallen out of favor with the rebuilding Washington Commanders. But, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman saw an opportunity to fill a need he’s been trying to plug for the better part of two seasons.
Dotson has caught 84 passes for 1,041 yards and 11 touchdowns through his first two seasons and has the versatility to stretch the field on the perimeter or make plays in the slot.
Not only will Dotson’s next reception come from Hurts, but his arrival in South Philly ends a revolving door that has seen Julio Jones, DeVante Parker (now retired), Parris Campbell, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Britan Covey all trying to nail down the No. 3 receiver role alongside A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Roseman plucked Dotson and a fifth-round pick in exchange for a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks in the trade with Washington and will have control over the 24-year-old Lehigh Valley native with first-round pedigree for the next three seasons.
“Howie Roseman schooled the league, again,” an AFC scouting director told me shortly after the trade.
There’s no question it’s going to be crowded among the Eagles’ skill players, especially given that Brown, Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert combined for 353 of Hurts’ targets last season with Saquon Barkley and Dotson combining for 143 in 2023. But, the possibilities for the mismatches offensive coordinator Kellen Moore can now create in the passing game seem limitless.
This is Hurts’ best-supporting cast to date and might be the deepest collection of skill players in the NFL.