One Key Matchup That Will Define Each NFL Divisional Playoff Game
After a slew of blowout victories, and one doink heard ‘round Central Florida, eight teams remain in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy.
The Divisional round features some fascinating chess matches, including two of the sport’s ascending young quarterbacks facing off against two of the brightest defensive minds, two of the premier power-running teams led by a pair of MVP front-runners doing battle with a spot in the conference championship game on the line as well as what promises to be a strength-on-strength showdown in Philadelphia.
Before this weekend’s games kick off, here’s a look at the one key matchup that could decide the outcome of each game:
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: C.J. Stroud vs. Steve Spagnuolo
Despite being without top receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, C.J. Stroud was workmanlike and efficient as the Texans made easy work of Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert, and the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend. It will not be as easy against the Kansas City Chiefs, and chess grandmaster of a defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Spagnuolo has a well-earned reputation as an exotic blitzer and architect of unique pressure concepts. Meanwhile, Stroud enters Saturday’s game with one of the best interceptable pass rates under pressure in the NFL, at -.36, trailing only Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Aaron Rodgers. Likewise, Stroud’s 23 big-time throws rank 11th in the league.
This season, the Chiefs have dialed up extra pressure via the blitz on 31.6 percent of snaps, fourth-most often in the league, generating pressure on 22 percent of passing snaps. Additionally, Chiefs All-Pro Chris Jones posted a league-best 16 percent pass-rush win rate. If Stroud is going to replicate his solid 282-yard one-touchdown, one-interception performance in a win over the Chargers, he will need to beat what has the potential to be relentless pressure from Kansas City.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions: Dyami Brown vs. Amik Robertson
Commanders wide receiver Dyami Brown has quickly developed into one of rookie sensation Jayden Daniels’ favorite targets, and has benefitted from the added attention defenses must pay Terry McLaurin on the opposite side of the field.
In the Commanders’ Wild Card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brown caught all five of his targets, tying McLaurin for a team-high 89 yards and a touchdown with several clutch catches in big moments along the way.
Brown has quickly, and quietly, developed into one of the most explosive players in the sport, while garnering just 8.5 percent of Daniels’ targets throughout the regular season. The fact that Daniels boasts a 109.2 passer rating when targeting Brown, who has an average depth of target of just 7.3 yards underscores the young quarterback’s confidence in Brown as well as his ability to pick up tough yards after the catch.
Meanwhile, Robertson is holding quarterbacks to a meager 88.1 passer rating when targeting him but has missed eight tackles this season which could make him vulnerable to what Brown does best. Aaron Glen’s defense has imposed its will on quarterbacks throughout this season, and Brown may need to be Daniels’ security blanket while producing some big plays to give Washington a chance at scoring enough points to think about an upset.
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Saquon Barkley solidified his status as an MVP candidate the last time the Eagles squared off against the Los Angeles Rams.
Back in Week 12, Barkley ran roughshod over the Rams for a career-high 255 rushing yards with two touchdowns of 60-plus yards while averaging 9.8 yards per carry. For good measure, Barkley added four catches for 47 yards. Nothing that the Rams do on offense, or in hopes of replicating the Green Bay Packers’ relative success against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in the Wild Card round will remotely matter if Barkley is allowed to once again run wild.
Monday night in a blowout win over the Vikings, Los Angeles completely neutralized Minnesota running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers, holding them to just 87 yards after jumping out to an early lead forcing quarterback Sam Darnold and the offense to become one-dimensional. However, the Rams enter Sunday afternoon allowing an average of 122.7 yards per game, by comparison, Barkley averaged 117.9 rushing yards, on his own.
Likewise, Barkley leads the NFL in explosive runs of 10 yards or more, with 46. However, this will be a different Rams defense than the one Barkley thrashed earlier in the regular season, as Los Angeles has allowed explosive runs on just 3.1 percent of running snaps since Week 7, fifth-best in the league, and boast the NFL’s 11th best run-stop win rate. Both teams’ chances of advancing may ultimately hinge on Barkley’s performance in his second-ever NFC Divisional Playoff game.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: Ravens Secondary vs. Buffalo’s Explosive Plays
This is one of the most compelling quarterback vs. quarterback matchups we’ll see during this postseason, pitting a pair of MVP frontrunners against one another. But, who advances to the AFC Championship Game may hinge on whether Baltimore can limit Buffalo’s explosiveness in the vertical passing game.
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton has emerged as one of the premier players at his position across the sport. He’s allowing an average of eight yards per reception—121st among safeties—but he’s only allowed 47 catches all season. Likewise, the Ravens have allowed the most passes of 20 or more yards in 2024.
If Baltimore’s pass rush doesn’t get home, and the Ravens are generating pressure on just 22.5 percent of pass-rush snaps (15th in the NFL), Allen is playing some of the most efficient quarterbacking of his career and could take advantage of some big-play opportunities, should they present themselves.
After all, Allen enters Sunday’s clash as the NFL’s third-most explosive player, factoring in passes of 20-plus yards and runs of 10-plus yards, while boasting the 13th-highest deep-ball accuracy percentage in the NFL.
The last time the Ravens and Bills met, Allen had just three explosive passes of 20-plus yards, and the Ravens won in blowout fashion, 35-10.
In a game featuring electrifying runners such as Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, James Cook, and Allen, the Ravens’ ability to avoid getting beaten over the top could prove to be a deciding factor in whether they advance to a second consecutive conference championship.
If I can humbly note, I also put in a workmanlike performance today.