Playoff Push to Paydays: Darnold, Baun, and Caleb Williams Take Center Stage | Mailbag
Quarterbacks, Contracts, and Chaos Abound
The NFL season is in its stretch run, three playoff spots have already been locked up, and each remaining game carries higher stakes as teams make their charge towards the postseason.
Likewise, the coaching carousel continues to spin, and some teams might be staring down the barrel at some difficult decisions at quarterback and with key players on their roster in a few months from now.
Inside this week’s mailbag, we tackle Sam Darnold’s complicated future with the Minnesota Vikings, an agent opens up about what it might cost the Eagles to keep Zack Baun, plus informed insight from conversations with sources around the league on Caleb Williams’ future and what the Falcons might do at quarterback in the biggest games of their season.
Let’s get right to your questions!
If Sam Darnold finishes the season on a high note and keeps his play at the same level what do they do with him with JJ Mccarthy as the heir apparent and most likely healthy enough to play next year? ()
Sam Darnold’s renaissance continues to be one of the most pleasant surprises and dominant storylines of the 2024 NFL season.
Darnold has unquestionably found a home in Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system, is benefitting from the plethora of weapons around him — wide receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, running back Aaron Jones, and tight end T.J. Hockenson, but also maximizing Minnesota’s offense, particularly in clutch situations.
Through 12 games, Darnold has already set new career-highs with 23 touchdowns and is well on his way to doing the same in passing yards, currently with 2,952, and passer rating, currently at 102.5. Meanwhile, Darnold has led two fourth quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives so far this season while propelling the Vikings to within 1.5 games of the Detroit Lions for the NFC North lead, at 10-2.
In a vacuum, Darnold is playing well above the one-year contract worth $10 million the Vikings signed him to this offseason while making a strong case at age 27 that he’s capable of following in Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield’s footsteps into prolific twilights of their careers in winning situations.
However, the future isn’t as cut and dry as it might appear, given that the Vikings invested the No. 10 overall pick in this spring’s draft in former Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
While McCarthy’s season ended before it had the chance to begin, when he suffered a meniscus tear and underwent season-ending surgery on August 12, the draft capital Minnesota invested in him combined with Darnold’s strong play this season could paint a picture so interesting it would make Salvador Dali envious.
is a good friend, one of the brightest football minds you’ll find, and is as plugged into the Vikings as any reporter out there.I posed your question to Arif, who does an outstanding job at Wide Left — which I find to be mandatory reading in terms of both his football and political analysis — to get his thoughts on where he believes the Vikings’ quarterback situation is headed:
Behind the scenes, the Vikings have been pretty consistent about handing the reins off to McCarthy after the season is over regardless of how Darnold plays. This was the understanding even before the season started, when players rallied around "getting Sam Darnold paid" the next offseason.
But in the NFL, nothing is ever set in stone. Even in an era where we judge quarterbacks more on process than outcomes, wins can change the tides. I can imagine Darnold walks to another team and a nice paycheck -- especially in what looks to be a weak quarterback draft class -- if the Vikings only last one round into the playoffs.
However, in an alternate scenario where the Vikings make it all the way to the Super Bowl, it would be hard to let him go to another team. Winning the Super Bowl would almost certainly lock him in. The question, really, is what happens if the Vikings make it all the way to the NFC Championship game just to fall short.
A previous regime let Case Keenum walk, but these aren't the same scenarios. It was very clear the 2017 Vikings, who also had a strong defense, were benefiting from luck and fluky plays with Keenum. The 2024 Vikings have absolutely seen high-quality play from Darnold. In that scenario I could see the Vikings negotiating with Darnold's team and ultimately losing the negotiation to a more desperate squad.
One other element to keep in mind: the Vikings have very little draft capital. If they let Darnold walk and secure a 2026 compensatory draft pick, they could feel more comfortable trading away a 2026 pick to get 2025 capital. At the moment, they only have three picks in the upcoming class. It's a minor consideration, but for general managers, all of these things matter.
As Hasan points out, Darnold is going to be the most coveted veteran quarterback available, if the Vikings let him hit the market.
It isn’t inconceivable to think the Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans or even potentially the Cleveland Browns could look at what Darnold has done and make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the sport.
The Vikings’ draft capital situation is another compelling argument suggesting Darnold could be elsewhere. If Minnesota believes that McCarthy is healthy, and that O’Connell can get the most out of just about any veteran backup, the Vikings could go down a similar path with a different veteran backup next fall.
Regardless, though, this is going to be one of the more fascinating quarterback situations to play out as free agency nears this spring.
Is this the year that the Eagles and Howie Roseman finally pay a linebacker like Zack Baun? (Chris Playo on BlueSky)
Zack Baun really has played his way into becoming an indispensable piece of the Eagles’ success on defense.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has deployed Baun as a bit of a Swiss-Army knife, lining him up with his hand in the dirt, at inside linebacker, even dropping him into coverage in the slot, all while handling the communication duties as the green-dot player for the Eagles’ defense.
Baun was an ascending talent in New Orleans, but has become a breakout star in Philadelphia.
This season, Baun has amassed a career-high 118 tackles with 2.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, one interception, and a whopping 12 tackles for loss as a disruptive force in opposing backfields all season long.
Pro Football Focus lists Baun as the No. 3 rated linebacker across the league this season, awarding the 27-year-old with an 89.6 overall grade.
Needless to say, Baun is outplaying his one-year deal worth $1.6 million this season and is primed to cash in when free agency begins anew in March.
I spoke to an agent who represents several Pro Bowl and All-Pro caliber linebackers to get a sense for what Baun’s market value might be when free agency gets underway and what it might cost the Eagles to keep their newfound defensive playmaker.
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