Predicting the NFL Awards: My Picks for 2024 MVP, Rookies of The Year, More
Looking ahead at the 2024 NFL season as training camps open around the league
The most wonderful time of the year is here.
NFL training camps are beginning to open across the country, optimism is renewed in 32 buildings across the league — be it about a possible Super Bowl charge or the upstart rookie quarterback bound to lead the franchise to brighter days ahead.
What better time to take a best guess at who the brightest stars and most impactful figures will be for the NFL season just a couple of calendar turns away?
In the coming weeks, I’ll be revealing the results of my annual survey of NFL executives, coaches, and players on how they expect the 2024 campaign to play out, but, today, here are my picks for this year’s award winners.
2024 NFL MVP: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
This feels like the kind of season where Joe Burrow is going to issue a strong reminder of just how prolific he can be when fully healthy.
Likewise, there seems to be some collective amnesia over just how disastrous Burrow’s 2023 really was, given that he suffered a calf injury on the first snaps of Bengals training camp last summer and never quite looked fully healthy. Yet, Burrow still averaged 230.9 passing yards per game while tossing 15 touchdowns to just six interceptions in his 10 starts before suffering a season-ending thumb injury against the Baltimore Ravens.
This might be the deepest roster Burrow has had at his disposal at any point during his career. Now fully healthy, with another year of familiarity with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, in a new offensive scheme, and potentially a swan song with Tee Higgins, Burrow’s Bengals have the pieces in place to make a legitimate Super Bowl charge in a loaded AFC.
2024 NFL Offensive Player of The Year: Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley has never been in a better position than he’s about to be in Philadelphia.
No longer needing to carry the burden of being the face of a franchise, Barkley is now just another weapon in a star-studded and prolific offense where he’ll benefit from sharing a backfield with one of the league’s top-10 quarterbacks while running behind one of the game’s premier offensive lines.
Yes, the Eagles are replacing Jason Kelce, which could make for some preseason growing pains. But, it’s noteworthy that despite running behind the NFL’s No. 30 ranked offensive line last season, Barkley still averaged 2.91 yards after contact per carry, while rattling off 26 explosive runs of 10 yards or more.
Now in a scheme that emphasizes catching the ball out of the backfield, and running behind an elite offensive line, there’s a very real possibility Barkley surpasses 2,000 total yards from scrimmage for the first time since his rookie season in 2018. If the Eagles rebound and make a run at the Super Bowl in the NFC, and Barkley becomes a focal point of the offense, he’s going to garner legitimate MVP consideration.
2024: Defensive Player of The Year: Micah Parsons, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys
There might not be a more disruptive or versatile defender in the sport than Micah Parsons.
Parsons has been in the conversation as Defensive Player of The Year the past two seasons but watched the award get handed down to Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett, but this could be the season that the Cowboys star breaks through.
A three-time Pro Bowler, Parsons logged a career-high 14 sacks in 2024 but given the fact that the 25-year-old wrecking ball is entering the final year of his contract, Parsons has plenty of motivation to be even more dominant than at any point to date in his career. That’s a scary thought for opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators.
2024 Offensive Rookie of The Year: Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams inherits arguably the most explosive collection of weapons any quarterback chosen No. 1 overall has had as a rookie at any point over the past three decades.
D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and fellow first-round pick Rome Odunze all have the potential to surpass 1,000 receiving yards, while running back D’Andre Swift arrives in the Windy City off a 1,200-yards from scrimmage 2023 campaign with the Philadelphia Eagles.
If the Bears had built an offense this explosive, behind an offensive line that improved as last season went along, around Justin Fields, Fields would still be Chicago’s starting quarterback and there would be just as much optimism about a return to the postseason as there is with Williams at the helm.
If Williams, who can make every throw on the route tree, has plus mobility and accuracy, can make the prolific weapons around him better, there’s a legitimate possibility the USC alum could at least match C.J. Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards and surpass his 23 touchdowns as a rookie. That kind of production, combined with restoring the roar on the banks of Lake Michigan, would make Williams a Rookie of The Year shoo-in.
2024 Defensive Rookie of The Year: Byron Murphy, DL, Seattle Seahawks
Few things are more disruptive to opposing quarterbacks than a dominant interior pass rush, and few coaches have shown more of a penchant for delivering a-gap pressure than new Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike MacDonald.
The biggest benefactor of that disruptive combination is rookie defensive lineman, with elite pass-rush skills, Byron Murphy.
Murphy, chosen No. 16 overall after posting five sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss last season at Texas, immediately becomes an anchor along the Seahawks’ defensive line. Given Murphy’s blend of strength, explosiveness, and athleticism, combined with MacDonald’s track record of building defenses on the foundation of generating relentless interior pressure, Murphy could push for 10+ tackles for loss and emerge as an immediate disruptive force for the Seahawks.
2024 Coach of The Year: DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have arrived.
Thanks to wunderkind quarterback C.J. Stroud, a defense that immediately adopted the hyper-competitive nature of its head coach, and now the arrival of game-breaking wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the Texans are legitimate Super Bowl contenders one year removed from barnstorming to an AFC South crown and the AFC Divisional Playoffs.
Houston won’t be catching anyone by surprise this year. But, given the talent general manager Nick Caserio has assembled around Stroud if the Texans take a big step towards the road to the Super Bowl going through NRG Stadium, Ryans’ reputation as one of the league’s elite head coaches is only going to continue to surge.
2024 NFL Comeback Player of The Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
Presuming Aaron Rodgers’ 2024 season lasts more than four snaps, the offense the New York Jets have built around the future Hall of Fame quarterback has all the pieces in place to make a run at the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Two years removed from winning the NFL MVP award, Rodgers now shares a backfield with explosive running back Breece Hall, with dynamic receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the receiving end of his passes, an ultimate soft landing in his return from a torn ACL.
Likewise, thanks to a defense that still managed to finish third in total defense while allowing only 20.9 points per game despite a nonexistent offense, Rodgers might not even need to be the catalyst for the Jets making a return to the playoffs to still garner the praise and recognition to run away with this award.