Revisiting Our Pre-NFL Draft Buzz | What We Nailed, Where We Whiffed
At Between The Hashmarks, we’re all about accountability. So, before the NFL Draft buzz fades, let’s take a hard look at what we got right, and where we whiffed, in our final premium pre-draft report to paid subscribers.
Wednesday night before the NFL Draft, I put out a final piece of reporting on what I was hearing leading up to the draft.
For the most part, our sources didn’t lead us astray, and when they did, we weren’t far off the right path.
Inspired by the fine folks at
(Seriously, you should subscribe to these dudes for their outstanding draft coverage year-round, and especially leading up to the draft), let’s take a hard look in the mirror at what we reported against what wound up playing out.What We Heard: The QB Whose Stock Is Skyrocketing
“I’m hearing that teams want a quarterback at the end of Round 1. There may be a few teams that try and get a late pick so that they have that fifth-year option.” - NFL Scouting Director
There’s an adage that desperate teams will do desperate things for a quarterback, and, despite a consensus that Ward might be the only potential franchise quarterback in this year’s class, the inevitable pre-draft stock surge is happening.
According to the scouting director, the quarterback rising the highest and potentially the target for teams looking to trade up into the first round is Alabama’s Jalen Milroe.
Verdict: On the Right Path
The New York Giants, after selecting former Penn State EDGE rusher Abdul Carter No. 3 overall, traded back into the first round to select quarterback … Jaxson Dart.
Part of the motivation for the Giants was to ensure they secured a quarterback they believe can be the future of the franchise, with the No. 25 overall pick, but also for the coveted fifth-year option.
As for Milroe, it turns out the smoke leading up to the draft that he could go in the first round was merely a smokescreen rather than a five-alarm fire.
The underwhelming former Alabama quarterback wasn’t chosen until the third round, by the Seahawks, with pick No. 92.
What We Heard: Shedeur Sliding
Speaking of quarterbacks …
From multiple conversations both on the team-side, and among agents who represent potential first-round picks and are thus in constant conversations with teams, it sure sounds like Shedeur Sanders could slide.
“Where Sanders winds up going may be the most interesting storyline of this entire draft,” one agent tells me. “I think he could slide and not be taken until the second round.”
The agent’s assessment jibes with what I’ve been hearing from several teams that they were a bit put off by what I’ve been told is “arrogance” from Sanders during private meetings and visits to facilities.
Verdict: Nailed. It.
Readers of Between The Hashmarks got an early tip-off that teams viewed Sanders way differently than the national media and armchair analysts did. Sanders slid all the way to the fifth round when the Cleveland Browns stopped his slide.
Well before Sanders’ conduct during top-30 visits became the never-ending conversation across the networks on Friday night and much of Saturday afternoon, our readers got a glimpse of what really led to teams moving the former Colorado standout down or off their board entirely.
If you value real insight from plugged-in sources — not just mock drafts — and want exclusive intel like this every week, join the Between The Hashmarks community today. Tap below to become a paid subscriber and never miss what the league’s insiders are really saying.
Who Nailed the Draft—and Who Should Be Worried Because of It | 4 Downs
With one mile marker of the NFL calendar beginning to fade into the horizon in the rearview mirror, the league is already approaching another.
What we heard: Beware the Blockbuster Trade
This is a unique draft already, in that there has yet to be a single trade made involving a first round pick. All 32 teams are slated to pick in their respective slot.
If Roger Goodell makes it through announcing all 32 picks Thursday night without announcing that a trade has been made, it would be the first time since 1993 that the first round goes off without a trade.
My theory is that since there are—according to some teams, only four blue chip prospects in this year’s class, that there simply isn’t a player worth trading up for and the teams picking in the top five aren’t enticed by any prospects available lower on the board to trade out of their slot.
However, that may change, and it may change early Thursday.
“Don’t be surprised if Cleveland trades down to acquire more picks,” an NFL executive told me Wednesday.
Verdict: Nailed It
The Cleveland Browns saw Travis Hunter sitting on the board at No. 2, and opted to trade back with the Jacksonville Jaguars to acquire pick No. 5 overall, a second-round pick, a fourth-round pick, and a 2026 first-rounder.
What we Heard: Don’t Expect Wide Receivers to Go Flying Off The Board
Few positions embody this draft class more broadly than at wide receiver.
If you’re looking for a possession receiver with big-play potential, Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins is probably your guy. Looking for a pure speed merchant whose route running needs some refinement, go check out Matthew Golden. Desperately looking for a slot receiver, you’re going to love Emeka Egbuka.
I happen to like the depth of this class and some of the receivers who could go in the third round or on the third day of the draft, but, there aren’t many sure-fire or can’t miss top receiver prospects.
One agent, who represents multiple All-Pro wide receivers tells me he doesn’t think that there will be more than three receivers chosen in the first round this year.
Verdict: The right path.
If Travis Hunter winds up playing wide receiver for the Jaguars, there will have been four receivers taken in the first round, but only Arizona’s Teteiroa McMillan wound up going off the board in the top-10 picks, at No. 8 overall to the Carolina Panthers.
Turns out, I was higher on Jayden Higgins than NFL evaluators were, with the Iowa State star slipping to the Houston Texans in the second round. But, McMillan, Egbuka, and Golden all heard their name called by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in Round 1.
What we Heard: Unpredictability Abound
As I wrote Monday, mock drafts are typically a fool’s errand.
This year, perhaps more than ever, which is what I keep hearing from my conversations with folks inside the war rooms where the picks will be made over the next three days.
“NFL teams grade and rank players much differently than the media does to fit their own criteria,” an NFC South Personnel Director tells me. “So, the variance from team-to-team is much grater than most realize.”
Verdict: The Right Path
Yeah, this is the one and only time we are going to mention my mock draft, ever again. Deal?
Published the Monday before the draft, it included just 4.5 (partial credit for nailing the slot but not the team that traded out) accurate predictions. Hey, remember what I said about accountability?
At least we nailed McMillan to Carolina and Jihaad Campbell to Philly.
That has to count for something, right? RIGHT?!
Even Peter Schrager (not picking on Peter, specifically, his mock was simply the most recently published “final” mock draft at ESPN that I came across) only had 6.5 correct picks, underscoring the relative unpredictability of draft night and undermining the tangible value of mock drafts.
However, the first five picks were essentially the chalk picks of every mock draft including except for mine, which means it was a bit more predictable at the top than I anticipated.
The results of this draft, and how [in]accurate the mocks were leading up to it underscore the executive’s point, even if we’d like to hold ourselves to higher standards around these parts …
Overall, I’m proud of the work we put in leading up to and through the NFL Draft.
If you value my brand of blending insider reporting with the analysis that comes with over 15 seasons covering the league with a Rolodex of sources at my disposal, please consider subscribing today!
I follow the pre-draft media with a cursory glance because I don't follow college football and I get some input into possible draft choices for my team. The endless RAS inspections are tedious. The film clips of prospects are more interesting.
I'm all for the pre-draft hoopla if only for the economic impact it has. How many people are making money with all this discussion? Without three months of draft coverage - one quarter of the NFL year! - Lombardo, Tanier, Kiper, Rapaport, Greenie, Wright, Breer, Adams, Schatz, et al would be seated shoulder to shoulder turning tiny screws into iPhones. And we, the insatiable NFL fans, would be deprived of a fourth discussion of Prospect X's arm length.