Saquon Barkley's Possible MVP Case, Dak Prescott Awaiting his Brinks Truck, More | 4 Downs
The QB Market Continues to Explode, Saquon Barkley Making Major Impact, Caleb Williams' Debut Looms, and More.
This is the debut “Four Downs” column that will run in this space each Monday morning. Beginning with next week’s edition, it will be exclusive content for paid subscribers. You can become a subscriber or upgrade to a paid membership here (and through July 31, save 25% OFF!).
My 14th season covering the NFL might be my most unique yet.
If you’re reading this, please know that I appreciate your continued support of my career and work over the nearly decade and a half since I began my journey in sports journalism covering the NFL.
These are turbulent and uncertain times in the journalism industry. The New York Times shut down its sports desk on July 10, 2023, and the ill-fated upstart The Messenger suddenly ceased operations on January 31 of this year after less than a year in operation.
Personally, I have witnessed the precariousness of this industry firsthand when FanBuzz was purchased and subsequently shuttered four months ago without notice in the middle of a workday.
So, here we are at Between The Hashmarks, the home of my exclusive reporting, insights, features, and more fun for the 2024 season.
I’m thoroughly looking forward to building, growing, and expanding a community here on Substack and covering the league by telling the stories that matter most to you, the fans, and readers, with insights from my sources around the league.
Thanks for being here. Let’s have some fun.
Without further adieu, here is the debut Four Downs column for the 2024 campaign, where we will tackle the biggest issues, storylines, and takeaways from each week’s action and project what the most important news across the league means for all parties involved.
First Down: Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love Cash in … Dak Prescott Waits
Friday was a very good day for Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love, it may have been a great day to be Dak Prescott.
For exactly six hours on Friday, Tua Tagovailoa was the highest-paid quarterback in the league after the Dolphins signed the 26-year-old with 53 regular season games and one playoff loss on his resumè with a $212 million extension.
Then, Jordan Love, who may have the most upside of any young quarterback in the league thanks to an exciting young collection of weapons around him, put pen to paper on a $220 million extension that secures the Green Bay Packers’ Favre-to-Rodgers-to-Love pipeline remains a model of consistency and the organization hopes excellence for years to come.
However, after Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, and now Tagovailoa and Love have all secured record-setting contracts over the past five months, no one is smiling wider or potentially sitting on a bigger pile of cash than Dak Prescott is about to.
Just how much is Prescott worth? What kind of deal can he expect when he eventually signs? I spoke to a half dozen agents and league sources to find out.
“He is much more proven and accomplished than the quarterbacks you’re seeing signed this offseason,” a prominent NFL agent tells me. “I think he is at least worth somewhere between $57-60 million per season.”
While Prescott has struggled when it matters most, posting a pedestrian 2-5 playoff record and has yet to lead the Cowboys even to an NFC Championship Game appearance, his 29,459 career passing yards and 202 passing touchdowns rank 10th among active quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren’t exactly in a situation where they’ll be within reach of one of the top rookie quarterbacks to replace him on an affordable deal next spring.
“You really have to wonder what a quarterback’s value is at this point,” a second agent familiar with the quarterback market told me. “In some form or fashion, this whole thing feels like next-man up.
“Neither Tua nor Love have the games or starts under their belts. But, because they were productive and it’s a quarterback-needy league, they got top-of-market deals.”
The agent says that the biggest hurdle preventing a Prescott extension today is that the Cowboys also need to sign wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons.
One league source, who requested anonymity to speak freely about a player on another team flatly suggests Prescott’s postseason failures could be what’s holding up any deal, suggesting Prescott has to “win more when it counts.”
If the Cowboys and Prescott aren’t able to strike an accord by the time Dallas heads to Cleveland to kick off the 2024 season, the 31-year-old will play out the final year of a four-year worth $160 million, signed back in 2021.
A third agent believes the only reason Jerry Jones has puzzlingly let the market balloon at quarterback before agreeing to terms with Prescott is possibly because he didn’t want to “reward” Prescott with two deals before his other stars got two bites of the apple.
That decision could prove … Costly.
“Dak’s price just got much higher,” a league source tells me. “Not necessarily due to what he has done, though that would merit it to at least some extent, but rather from what just happened in the quarterback market. He tide raises all $hip$.”
It wasn’t long ago that Patrick Mahomes’ contract was record-setting, at $450 million over ten seasons. But, records were made to be broken and Prescott seems primed to set the next benchmark in a quarterback market that is rising faster than at any position across the league.
“Jerry could’ve locked Dak in several years ago,” a fourth agent tells me. “And, at a much lower rate.
“He gambled, and at this point, it’s a toss-up whether it worked. Dallas has the pieces to make it to the NFC title game, but that’ll fall on Dak’s shoulders. If they do, Jerry will look like a genius, whether it is under a new deal or letting his quarterback ride this one out.”
Second Down: Is Saquon Barkley the Eagles’ Missing Piece?
As he has tended to over the past several years, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman spotted a market inefficiency. This time, Roseman just may have found a way to exploit it in a manner that puts Philadelphia back on a Super Bowl trajectory.
In an era when workhorse running backs have been devalued in favor of committees built around younger players on their rookie deals and grizzled veterans spelling them on the cheap, only to have the cycle rinse and repeat every few years, the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley, prying him away from the bitter NFC east rival Giants on a three-year deal worth $37.75 million deal this offseason.
“I think Saquon is capable of carrying an offense,” former Eagles and Washington Commanders legendary running back Brian Mitchell tells me. “Especially having the supporting cast he has in Philly.”
No longer bearing the weight of being the weapon in an often rudderless offense behind what has consistently been one of the most porous offensive lines in the sport, nor the expectations of being a former No. 2 overall pick of the New York Giants, Barkley is a cog — perhaps eventually the most vital in an explosive offensive machine that includes All-Pro A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert as weapons defenses must account for on every snap, all conducted by quarterback Jalen Hurts.
This will be the most proficient and prolific cast of weapons Barkley has been part of in his career.
Last season, Barkley proved he can still be a capable running back by rushing for 962 yards and six touchdowns while adding 41 catches for 280 yards and four more scores.
Barkley’s 1,242 total yards from scrimmage rank 11th among running backs, but each yard seemed like a mile ran behind Pro Football Focus’ No. 30 ranked offensive line. Still, Barkley rattled off 26 explosive runs of 10 yards or more while forcing 31 missed tackles and averaging 2.91 yards after contact per carry last season.
“I could see Saquon having a huge year in Philly,” an AFC offensive coach tells me, speaking on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about a player on another team. “And if he does, he could get serious MVP consideration.”
In Philadelphia’s offense, coordinator Kellen Moore will likely be introducing pre-snap motion, which will create mismatches using Barkley all over the field, perhaps even in the slot where he thrived at times during his collegiate career at Penn State. Meanwhile, Barkley gets to run behind an offensive line PFF ranks No. 2 in the league entering the 2024 campaign.
Barkley’s versatility, explosiveness, and scheme fit in an offense that will deploy him all over the field and could jumpstart an offense that averaged just 20.5 points over the final six games of a disastrous 1-5 closing stretch to the 2023 campaign.
“The thing about Saquon is he’s very good as a runner and a pass-receiver,” Mitchell explains. “That makes it harder for teams to decipher whether it’s a run or pass on any given snap. If he stays healthy, they can be amazing this year.”
Third Down: Players to Watch in Hall of Fame Game
This week, we have football* back!
*sort of … The Hall of Fame Game between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. in Canton, Ohio in the shadow of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Here are three players that I’m most excited to get a glimpse of, even if for a fleeting series, or two:
Bears QB Caleb Williams
There may never have been a softer landing for a rookie quarterback than Williams’, who arrives in an offense that features a future Hall of Fame wide receiver (Keenan Allen), a Pro Bowl wide receiver (D.J. Moore), a top-10 rookie wide receiver (Rome Odunze), and an explosive running back in D’Andre Swift, while getting to operate behind an emerging offensive line. The Bears are going to be a lot of fun this year, with an offense fully capable of making a charge at an NFC Wild Card berth.
Bears WR Rome Odunze
A big piece of Williams’ soft landing is Odunze, who at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds has the massive build of a reliable red-zone target and possession receiver with elite 4.45-second speed. Odunze caught 92 passes for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns as a focal point in the University of Washington’s high-flying offense last season. How Odunze fits in Williams’ arsenal and the immediate chemistry between these two rookies will be a major storyline during this preseason.
Texans CB Kamari Lassiter
Quarterback C.J. Stroud and arguably the most prolific receiving corps in the sport give every reason to believe the Texans can take a big step towards upsetting the AFC apple cart and making a Super Bowl run this fall. Houston’s 24th-ranked passing defense from a season ago is a healthy dose of cold water on those expectations. That’s a big reason why I’m anxious to see first-round pick Kamari Lassiter’s impact in the secondary. Lassiter and the Texans’ defensive backs have the benefit of a loaded and disruptive front seven headlined by Will Anderson, and newcomers Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry in front of them. But, Lassiter is a six-foot and 186-pound bundle of physicality from a loaded cornerback draft class. I’m excited to see his impact on the defense and the secondary. What a first test out of the chute, against the Bears …
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