Setting Expectations for Anthony Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, More | MAILBAG
Answering your NFL Questions as the Calendar flips to June
Few rookie seasons in recent memory offered more gobsmackingly tantalizing potential followed by nearly immediate tragedy than the first few weeks of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson’s NFL career.
Richardson, chosen No. 4 overall in last spring’s NFL Draft, the former University of Florida standout with off-the-charts athleticism made as impressive a first impression as one could imagine by passing for 223 yards with one touchdown, one interception and rushing for four touchdowns in his debut against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
At 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, Richardson’s big arm and his elusiveness on the run raised the hope that the Colts had finally found their heir apparent to Andrew Luck.
However, Richardson suffered a concussion in Week 2 against the Texans, while rushing for a touchdown, and his season was over after injuring his throwing shoulder in Week 5.
When the dust settled, Richardson completed 50-of-84 passes for 577 yards with three touchdowns, and one interception, adding 136 rushing yards and four scores in four weeks.
The question becomes, can Richardson — who appeared in just 24 collegiate games in Gainsville shepherd in the next great era of Indianapolis Colts football, beginning with issuing a reminder to the rest of the league in 2024 what he’s capable of?
“I wouldn’t have drafted any quarterback with such little experience in college,” an NFL quarterback coach tells me of Richardson.
But, the Colts did select Richardson and invested a premium pick to drop him into a supporting cast that already included All-Pro former NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor at running back and emerging deep-threat Michael Pittman Jr. at wide receiver before dropping Texas speedster Adonai Mitchell into his arsenal in the 2024 draft.
The pieces are in place around Richardson for him to play his way into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks and more than hold his own in an exciting AFC South that now houses legitimate MVP candidate C.J. Stroud in Houston, wunderkind former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, and a dynamic collection of skill players around Will Levis in Tennessee.
So, what are reasonable expectations for Richardson in 2024 and beyond?
“He will be a flasher,” a rival AFC Scouting Director told me of Richardson. “Lots of good and some bad. My biggest worry for Richardson is whether he can be consistent.
“He’s going to have some Josh Allen games but also some Kyler Murray ones thrown in there.”
Given Colts head coach Shane Steichen’s influence in developing Jalen Hurts into a legitimate MVP candidate in Philadelphia, and the fact that Gardner Minshew passed for a career-high 3,305 yards with 15 touchdowns to nine interceptions, it seems reasonable that Richardson — if he can stay healthy — could push for 3,500 passing yards with double Minshew’s passing touchdowns, nearly double his interceptions, and perhaps rush for at least 10 more scores.
That kind of season would likely position the Colts to at minimum be in the mix for a playoff berth, and justify all of the optimism surrounding Richardson’s potential.
Let’s dive further into this week’s Mailbag!
If the over/under for the Jets’ wins was 11, which are you taking?
The Jets really are the chic pick to return to the postseason and mount a legitimate challenge to the Kansas City Chiefs’ run at a third consecutive Super Bowl run.
Some of that optimism is absolutely justified — even if Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles tendon doesn’t hold up for many more than four snaps.
After all, this is a defense that finished third in total defense last season, and just added Haason Reddick to its menacing front seven, and despite fielding a nonexistent offense surrendered just 20.9 points per game.
There is enough exciting young talent on both sides of the ball that was bolstered this offseason by the acquisitions of Reddick and field-stretching wide receiver Mike Williams to elevate New York to new heights this season.
Much of the Jets’ lofty ceiling is propped up by Rodgers staying healthy — but, remember, he wasn’t that great his last fully healthy season; passing for 3,695 yards with 26 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in a mediocre 2022 campaign with the Green Bay Packers.
Still, the Jets benefit from sharing a division with a rebuilding and largely talent-barren New England Patriots franchise and the Buffalo Bills who look ready to take a step back.
Given the schedule that features games against the San Francisco 49ers, two against the Miami Dolphins, the Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, and Minnesota Vikings, if this team does make the postseason, they’ll be as battle-tested as it gets on that side of the bracket.
If Rodgers goes the distance, this defense is good enough to carry the Jets to at least an 11-win season. Give me the over, by a nose.
What Do You Expect From Caleb Williams This Year?
I’m not sure there has ever been a softer landing for a rookie quarterback than the situation Caleb Williams is walking into.
General manager Ryan Poles and the Bears deserve boatloads of credit for building a receiving corps over the past two offseasons that includes D.J. Moore, six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen, and now No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze, and dynamic running back D’Andre Swift.
“Caleb should be really good as a rookie,” an NFC Executive told me, on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about a player on another team. “He can make plays when the offensive line breaks down. The biggest question and only real worry is will the offensive line hold up in front of him.”
Beyond the supporting cast, beyond the infrastructure around Williams, he can make the players around him better, he processes information quickly, and has the accuracy to make any throw from the pocket. Poles and the Bears couldn’t have played the past two drafts better.
Williams is one of the more heralded quarterback prospects in recent seasons, and justifiably has the Bears positioned to make a legitimate worst-to-the-postseason run in 2024.
It isn’t about pushing for an MVP award or leading the league in passing for Williams as a rookie, but, there’s no reason given the pieces around him that the former Heisman Trophy winner can’t make a run at 4,000 passing yards, over 30 touchdowns and fewer than 12 interceptions. That kind of season will have Chicago back in the playoff hunt, which could wind up being the floor for what to expect throughout Williams’ career.