This Will Be Patrick Mahomes' Most Explosive Chiefs Offense Yet | 24 Thoughts on 2024 NFL Season
Previewing what promises to be a wild and unpredictable 2024 NFL season ahead
The NFL season kicks off with a potential AFC Championship Game preview on Thursday night, followed by the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers on Friday form Brazil, ahead of a complete Sunday slate.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
Before the action officially kicks off, here are 24 random thoughts on the 2024 NFL season:
1. This is the most explosive offense the Kansas City Chiefs have built around Patrick Mahomes to date
When the curtain rises on the 2024 season Thursday night in Kansas City against the Ravens, we’ll get a bit of a movie trailer version of the Chiefs’ offense.
However, once Marquise “Hollywood” Brown gets back on the field, the supporting cast around Patrick Mahomes has the potential to be his most dynamic, explosive, and versatile to date.
Apologies to the Tyreek Hill-led offenses of yesteryear, but Brown, rookie Xavier Worthy, All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, and running backs Isaiah Pacheco, Samaje Perine, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are an embarrassment of riches not just for the three-time Super Bowl MVP but also his mad scientist play-caller, Andy Reid, who may be the greatest coach of his generation.
2. The pieces are in place for Saquon Barkley to run away with Offensive Player of The Year
Saquon Barkley has to feel like he’s been released from purgatory.
No longer the face of a franchise that boasted a pitiful .343 winning percentage since he was chosen with the No. 2 overall pick in 2018, Barkley returns to his home state just 68 miles from his alma mater of Whitehall High School where he’s merely a piece of an electrifying puzzle that includes A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Jahan Dotson around quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is two years removed from a second-place finish in MVP voting.
For those who believe running backs don’t matter, my theory is that they don’t matter until they need to; see McCaffrey, Christian with the San Francisco 49ers. Expect Barkley to have a similar impact that McCaffrey has made on San Francisco’s Super Bowl aspirations in Philadelphia.
Last season, behind one of the NFL’s poorest, and most porous offensive lines, Barkley averaged 2.91 yards after contact per rushing attempt while rattling off 26 explosive runs of 10 yards or more, according to Pro Football Focus. Now, with the benefit of running behind Philadelphia’s potentially elite offensive line and alongside a mobile quarterback with a cast of weapons that will keep defenses guessing, Barkley has a real chance to push for 2,500 yards from scrimmage while making a real run at Offensive Player of The Year.
3. Jacksonville is a bit of a sleeping Giant
The AFC South is home to four of the more intriguing quarterback situations in the sport.
While C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans are rightfully among the AFC’s Super Bowl favorites, and Anthony Richardson’s prolific athleticism offer high hopes in Indianapolis, it can be easy to forget about Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
However, Jacksonville has the luxury of a head coach with a Super Bowl ring on his finger, and an ascending quarterback entering his fourth NFL season with arguably the best and most balanced collection of pass-catchers he’s had at his disposal to date after the arrival of rookie Brian Thomas Jr., and savvy veteran Gabe Davis with Christian Kirk returning to the field and Parker Washington emerging.
Remember, Jacksonville opened the season 6-2, including a five-game winning streak before Trevor Lawrence suffered an injury he never quite recovered from. A healthy Lawrence with an improved supporting cast and a defense built to terrorize opposing quarterbacks in the front-seven could issue a strong reminder of what this team is capable of even in a loaded AFC.
4. This feels like a make-or-break season for Joe Schoen, Brian Daboll, and the New York Giants
Anyone who watched the drama and disappointment unfold in general manager Joe Schoen’s office during MAX’s inaugural Hardknocks Offseason series came away with one clear takeaway; the heat is on Schoel and Daboll to produce.
Giants owner John Mara seemed gutted that Barkley will don an Eagles uniform for the next three seasons and New York will have to stop him at least six times over that span.
Meanwhile, if Daniel Jones doesn’t make meaningful strides and the Giants take meaningful steps towards just a second playoff berth since 2011, it could be final curtains for the duo of Schoen and Daboll who have to date posted a 15-18-1 record with one postseason victory for the notoriously patient Mara.
If Jones, whom neither Schoen nor Daboll drafted, doesn’t prove sixth NFL season that he is a top-10 quarterback in this league, it is anything but certain that Schoen and Daboll will be selecting his successor next spring.
5. The Seattle Seahawks defense has the pieces in place to surge
There were moments last season where the Seahawks’ defense, led by a viciously physical secondary headlined by Devon Witherspoon and safety Julian Love playing the best football of his career, seemed primed to pick up the mantle and run with the title of Legion of Boom 2.0.
However, thanks to an offense plagued by fits and starts, some injuries and inconsistency on defense down the stretch, Seattle’s defense is going to need to prove itself once again in 2024.
Enter, head coach Mike MacDonald.
MacDonald helped build and transform the Baltimore Ravens’ defense into one of the league’s stingiest, holding opponents to a league-low 16.6 points per game and finishing sixth in total defense, and now takes over the reins in Seattle.
Rookie Byron Murphy adds the versatility of taking up space against the run and the ability to get after the passer, this is a secondary with another year of experience under its belt, and a play-caller who excels in exotic blitz packages to wreak havoc and put all of the pieces together. Don’t be surprised if by season’s end, Seattle’s squarely in the wildcard mix in the NFC led by a defense that finishes in the top-10.
6. It’s time for the real Kyle Pitts to stand up
Few tight end prospects have entered the NFL more highly heralded or with loftier expectations than when the Falcons chose Kyle Pitts No. 4 overall in the 2021 draft.
However, Pitts’ career has been a wildly inconsistent meandering journey to 149 catches for 2,049 yards with six touchdowns through his first 44 games.
Pitts has experienced the highs of a 1,026-yard rookie season and the lows of Arthur Smith’s quizzical roulette wheel of offensive playcalling. Despite his 6-foot-6 and 245-pound frame with off-the-charts athletic traits, Pitts has never caught more than three touchdowns in a season.
Now, with an adult in the room calling the plays in Zac Robinson, and a veteran quarterback in Kirk Cousins who has historically leaned on his tight ends, this may be Pitts’ best chance yet to live up to his reputation as a top-five pick and emerge as a legitimate offensive weapon in an offense suddenly chock-full of them.
7. Davante Adams’ upcoming season is fascinating
Davante Adams signed with the Raiders in large part for the chance to reunite with his college teammate, Derek Carr, and challenge the Kansas City Chiefs en route to chasing Super Bowl rings.
Now, $22.75 million fully guaranteed certainly didn’t hurt the Raiders’ chances of landing Adams but no matter how often he suggests he’s happy in the desert, I have to wonder how long that lasts as he enters a third season with a now quasi-rebuilding franchise while he’s on the receiving end of passes from Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell.
If the Raiders fall out of contention by Halloween, does anyone really believe Adams won’t try to talk his way out of SinCity, perhaps to the Big Apple into the open arms of another of his former quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers leads a Jets team primed for a potential playoff run? This is a situation I’ll be watching closely all season.
8. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are flying under the radar … Maybe they shouldn’t be
We’ll find out a lot about Baker Mayfield this season.
Yes, Dave Canales got the most out of Mayfield at any stage of his career last season (4,044 yards with 28 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and one playoff victory) which eventually helped him get the Carolina Panthers head coaching job. And, while Mayfield seemed to find a home in Canales’ quarterback-friendly offense, the Buccaneers still have myriad weapons around him.
If Mayfield can even approach last season’s production, his supporting cast of Captain Consistency Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, emerging tight end Cade Otten and speedster Jalen McMillan who was a training camp standout, is plenty of firepower to lift the Buccaneers into postseason contention, once again.
Head coach Todd Bowles’ defense was in the upper echelon of scoring defense last season, holding opponents to 20.3 points per game. Having the luxury of playing the Carolina Panthers and directionless New Orleans Saints four times could give the Bucs a leg up towards a repeat playoff performance. But, the pieces are there for this to be a genuine two-horse race in the AFC South.
9. Gervon Dexter is about to be the next Monster of The Midway
Much has been made about the Chicago Bears’ offense and the pillow-soft landing general manager Ryan Poles built for wunderkind No. 1 pick Caleb Williams at quarterback, however, not to be lost in the shuffle is a defense that’s currently under construction.
Defensive lineman Gervon Dexter, chosen by the Bears in the second round of last spring’s draft, posted 2.5 sacks with 20 total tackles while adding 12 more quarterback hits as a steadily disruptive interior pass-rusher.
Pro Football Focus credits Dexter with 29 quarterback pressures and 13 run stops, underscoring his versatility and ability to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Chicago’s defense will likely be put in more favorable positions this season and potentially be given the chance to rush the passer even more often while protecting leads. If so, look for Dexter to become a household name this fall.
10. This may be the most interesting Buffalo Bills season of the Josh Allen era
Josh Allen has led the Bills to at least the AFC Divisional Playoffs each of the past four seasons, including an AFC Championship Game loss in Arrowhead to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Allen is one of the most prolific passers of this era, and has finished fourth, third, and second in MVP voting dating back to 2021.
However, if the Bills are going to return at least to the conference championship game or even take two steps forward into the Super Bowl from last season’s divisional-round loss to the Chiefs in Orchard Park, Allen will need to somehow do even more.
After trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and allowing Gabe Davis to walk out the door to the Jaguars, this is going to be a nearly completely overhauled receiving corps around Allen. It could take some time to develop chemistry and cohesion with his weapons and the defense is a bit of a question mark overall.
In a conference that is an absolute gauntlet, how far Allen can lead the Bills in a year of transition will be one of the more interesting storylines to watch.
11. This is Joe Burrow’s best chance to win an MVP, maybe the Super Bowl
Joe Burrow is one of the more cerebral quarterbacks in the NFL not only with the luxury of a pair of elite playmaking wide receivers at his disposal but a nearly unmatched ability to elevate them within the confines of an offensive scheme.
Burrow’s returning from an elbow injury that derailed what had already been an injury-riddled 2023 season, now with a bolstered Bengals offensive line and the arrivals of Mike Gesicki at tight end and Zack Moss who are both competent pass catchers landing in his arsenal.
Before getting hurt last season, Burrow was on pace for 3,925 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 touchdowns, which would have placed him safely in the top 10 in all three categories. A motivated Ja’Marr Chase, some new weapons, and clean bill of health are the backdrop for what may be Burrow’s most prolific campaign yet.
12. The Denver Broncos may be this season’s surprise upstart
There’s always at least one team that comes from nowhere as a surprise contender.
Now, I don’t know that the Broncos have the pieces in place to replicate what C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans did last season, but I’m calling my shot that Bo Nix, Sean Payton, and the Broncos are the closest thing to a threat to the Chiefs in the AFC West.
Nix had the looks of a savvy veteran quarterback comfortable and confident both in his offensive scheme and maximizing the weapons around him this preseason, and on the other side of the ball the defense is loaded with playmakers; particularly on the backend.
Denver is my sleeper to surpass .500 and be in the mix for a wild card spot when Santa Claus takes flight, even if games against Burrow’s Bengals and Mahomes’ Chiefs to close out the regular season keep them from crashing the postseason party.
13. At some point the Jets are going to trade Haason Reddick
Haason Reddick seems dug in.
As one agent suggested to me; there is a possibility that false promises of an extension from the Jets may have been made before he was traded from Philadelphia and there is always the possibility that he never wanted to play for New York, but the fact that he has not stepped foot in Florham Park since March’s trade is … concerning.
General manager Joe Douglas has been steadfast that the Jets aren’t going to deal Reddick.
But, what happens if Reddick never shows? What if Jermaine Johnson looks the part and produces like a first-round pick and Will McDonald makes an instant impact as a top-15 pick? Might getting anything in return for a reluctant Reddick be more valuable to continuing to build out a roster hoping to push for Super Bowls than hoping a deal eventually gets struck?
14. The Miami Dolphins’ ceiling may come down to its defense
The Miami Dolphins’ offense has the track record and speed of a track team to be historically dominant this season.
After averaging 29.2 points per game last season, second only to the Dallas Cowboys, there’s a belief among some inside the league that Miami may be even more prolific in 2024, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s fifth season and third in head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense.
However, as we saw in a crushing loss at home to the Buffalo Bills that torpedoed Miami’s chances of hosting a playoff game and again in sub-fridged Arrowhead in the Wild Card round against the Chiefs, this is a team that has to get more physical, particularly on defense, if it hopes to make good on championship aspirations.
There’s a built-in ceiling for any team that allows 23 points per game, no matter how often the lightbulbs need changed on the scoreboard, thanks to the offense.
Rookie Chop Robinson is a big addition to the pass-rush, and getting Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips back is a nice step towards being more disruptive in the backfield, this team is going to need to consistently be as stingy a defense as it is an explosive offense.
15. The 49ers’ biggest question mark remains the same as it has always been
John Lynch took care of so much business, and tied up so many loose ends over the past week that one has to wonder if there was some sort of baptism he was attending in the Bay area.
To recap; the 49ers signed All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams to a three-year extension worth just under $83 million, ended Bradon Aiyuk’s hold-in by signing the receiver to a four-year deal worth $120 million, and, for good measure restructured Deebo Samuel’s contract.
San Francisco’s moves now give the 49ers a whopping $50 million in cap space in 2025, according to Spotrac, which should be plenty to re-sign quarterback Brock Purdy and several defensive playmakers.
However, the biggest hurdle keeping the 49ers from a repeat Super Bowl appearance remains whether this team can stay healthy. How healthy and effective will Williams be by season’s end? How much of an impact will Christian McCaffrey’s 339 touches in 2023 have on his durability in 2024?
If the 49ers can stay healthy, and avoid the injury bug nibbling away at star players, this might be the most complete and talented roster in the league. Whether their luck runs out remains to be seen.
16. Less may be more for Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert processes information quicker than a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL, has a cannon attached to his right shoulder, and looks like he was built in a vintage quarterback factory.
However, the Chargers have become a punchline in recent seasons, prone to one-score losses and early playoff exits despite the promise of Herbert’s talent and potential.
Only Patrick Mahomes has more passing attempts since 2020 than Herbert’s 2,422 over that span. But, with the arrival of smashmouth no-nonsense ground and pound head coach Jim Harbaugh and running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, perhaps just maybe Herbert and Los Angeles will benefit from an offense that establishes the run, dictates to defenses and picks its spots for Herbert to pick them apart.
Losing Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in the span of one offseason is going to leave a mark, but, leaning on the ground game could bring out the best in Herbert and perhaps be the Chargers’ formula for winding up on the other side of all those close losses.
Award Picks
In case you missed them, here are my picks for this year’s end-of-season awards:
17. 2024 NFL MVP: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
This feels like the kind of season where Joe Burrow is going to issue a strong reminder of just how prolific he can be when fully healthy.
Likewise, there seems to be some collective amnesia over just how disastrous Burrow’s 2023 really was, given that he suffered a calf injury on the first snaps of Bengals training camp last summer and never quite looked fully healthy. Yet, Burrow still averaged 230.9 passing yards per game while tossing 15 touchdowns to just six interceptions in his 10 starts before suffering a season-ending thumb injury against the Baltimore Ravens.
This might be the deepest roster Burrow has had at his disposal at any point during his career. Now fully healthy, with another year of familiarity with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, in a new offensive scheme, and potentially a swan song with Tee Higgins, Burrow’s Bengals have the pieces in place to make a legitimate Super Bowl charge in a loaded AFC.
18. NFL Offensive Player of The Year: Saquon Barkley
Now in a scheme that emphasizes catching the ball out of the backfield, and running behind an elite offensive line, there’s a very real possibility Barkley surpasses 2,000 total yards from scrimmage for the first time since his rookie season in 2018. If the Eagles rebound and make a run at the Super Bowl in the NFC, and Barkley becomes a focal point of the offense, he’s going to garner legitimate MVP consideration.
19. Defensive Player of The Year: Micah Parsons, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys
There might not be a more disruptive or versatile defender in the sport than Micah Parsons.
Parsons has been in the conversation as Defensive Player of The Year the past two seasons but watched the award get handed down to Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett, but this could be the season that the Cowboys star breaks through.
A three-time Pro Bowler, Parsons logged a career-high 14 sacks in 2024 but given the fact that the 25-year-old wrecking ball is entering the final year of his contract, Parsons has plenty of motivation to be even more dominant than at any point to date in his career. That’s a scary thought for opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators.
20. Offensive Rookie of The Year: Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams inherits arguably the most explosive collection of weapons any quarterback chosen No. 1 overall has had as a rookie at any point over the past three decades.
D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and fellow first-round pick Rome Odunze all have the potential to surpass 1,000 receiving yards, while running back D’Andre Swift arrives in the Windy City off a 1,200-yards from scrimmage 2023 campaign with the Philadelphia Eagles.
If Williams, who can make every throw on the route tree, has plus mobility and accuracy, can make the prolific weapons around him better, there’s a legitimate possibility the USC alum could at least match C.J. Stroud’s 4,108 passing yards and surpass his 23 touchdowns as a rookie. That kind of production, combined with restoring the roar on the banks of Lake Michigan, would make Williams a Rookie of The Year shoo-in.
21. Defensive Rookie of The Year: Byron Murphy, DL, Seattle Seahawks
Few things are more disruptive to opposing quarterbacks than a dominant interior pass rush, and few coaches have shown more of a penchant for delivering a-gap pressure than new Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike MacDonald.
The biggest benefactor of that disruptive combination is rookie defensive lineman, with elite pass-rush skills, Byron Murphy.
Murphy, chosen No. 16 overall after posting five sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss last season at Texas, immediately becomes an anchor along the Seahawks’ defensive line. Given Murphy’s blend of strength, explosiveness, and athleticism, combined with MacDonald’s track record of building defenses on the foundation of generating relentless interior pressure, Murphy could push for 10+ tackles for loss and emerge as an immediate disruptive force for the Seahawks.
22. Coach of The Year: DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have arrived.
Thanks to wunderkind quarterback C.J. Stroud, a defense that immediately adopted the hyper-competitive nature of its head coach, and now the arrival of game-breaking wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the Texans are legitimate Super Bowl contenders one year removed from barnstorming to an AFC South crown and the AFC Divisional Playoffs.
Houston won’t be catching anyone by surprise this year. But, given the talent general manager Nick Caserio has assembled around Stroud if the Texans take a big step towards the road to the Super Bowl going through NRG Stadium, Ryans’ reputation as one of the league’s elite head coaches is only going to continue to surge.
23. NFL Comeback Player of The Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
Presuming Aaron Rodgers’ 2024 season lasts more than four snaps, the offense the New York Jets have built around the future Hall of Fame quarterback has all the pieces in place to make a run at the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Two years removed from winning the NFL MVP award, Rodgers now shares a backfield with explosive running back Breece Hall, with dynamic receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the receiving end of his passes, an ultimate soft landing in his return from a torn ACL.
Likewise, thanks to a defense that still managed to finish third in total defense while allowing only 20.9 points per game despite a nonexistent offense, Rodgers might not even need to be the catalyst for the Jets making a return to the playoffs to still garner the praise and recognition to run away with this award.
24. Super Bowl Prediction: Detroit Lions over Houston Texans
The Motor City is about to throw a party the likes we have never seen.
In a lot of ways, the Lions and Texans are fraternal twins; both led by hypercompetitive head coaches, each boasting a defense loaded with playmakers headlined by homegrown pass rushers, and each possessing enough firepower on offense to run teams out of the building.
It should come as little wonder, then, that these two franchises may be on a collision course for Super Sunday in New Orleans.
I love the programs both Dan Campbell and DeMeco Ryans are establishing. Both Brad Holmes and Nick Caserio have conducted master classes on how to mine elite talent on all three days of the NFL Draft, with the latter clearly understanding the assignment of maximizing the window of having an elite quarterback on a rookie contract.
Both of these teams have wide Super Bowl windows, but the pieces are in place for each to make a run at the Lombardi this year.
What to Expect from Between The Hashmarks
If you’ve made it this far, hopefully you enjoyed these predictions and are prepared to either nod in agreement or blast me on social media (hopefully threads), but I also want to give a glimpse of what you can expect each week throughout the NFL season.
Monday:
4 Downs - My all-encompassing and sourced recap of the biggest storylines from all of the action around the NFL, including contextualizing the biggest performances, most consequential injuries, and handing out awards for breakout stars, MVPs of The Week, and more. (Paid Subscriber Exclusive)
Tuesday:
Mike Tanier and I will be hosting the Between The Hashmarks Podcast, which you can have delivered to your inbox each week by subscribing here, or on Apple Podcasts. Tanier, the purveyor of Mike Tanier’s Too Deep Zone, provides NFL insight and analysis like no one else in the business can thanks to his unique ability to meld analytics data with humor and the knowledge that comes with covering the NFL for decades.
You really should subscribe to The Too Deep Zone.
Thursday:
I’m going to experiment with sharing my live thoughts during the Thursday Night Football Game each week in the Between The Hashmarks Subscriber Chat. I hope you’ll join me!
Friday:
Sourced NFL Mailbag. Submit your questions either on Threads or in my chat (link above) and I will reach out to sources inside the NFL for their insight, analysis, and perspective while sharing my thoughts to help kickoff your football weekend each Friday. (Paid Subscriber Exclusive)
This is merely the tentpole plan. There will be periodic analysis pieces when news warrants, features on and interviews with some of the biggest newsmakers in and around the NFL, and more! I hope you’ll join me.
Now, let’s kickoff the 2024 season!